Global oil markets face renewed pressure as the collapse of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire drives analysts to project Brent crude near $100 per barrel through the end of the year. According to Rapidan Energy Group, persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential escalation targeting civilian infrastructure threaten sustained supply constraints.
Rapidan Energy Group Raises Year-End Crude Projections
Rapidan analysts warned in a Friday note that if remaining optimism for a peace agreement evaporates and markets begin pricing in tighter supply-and-demand fundamentals, the global benchmark could climb as high as $105 per barrel in the coming months. The firm also projects that the global oil market will remain in a deficit for at least an additional year.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Disruptions and Infrastructure Risks
The revised outlook is built on a fundamental shift in assumptions regarding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Rapidan no longer anticipates a full return to normalcy by early 2027. Instead, the firm projects that cargo movement through the vital waterway will recover to only about 35 percent of pre-war levels by October before climbing to roughly 65 percent across 2027.
The collapse of the memorandum of understanding between the United States of America and Iran has fundamentally altered our outlook. The key question now is whether the two sides will continue to limit strikes to military targets, or allow the conflict to expand to civilian infrastructure, specifically electricity and water desalination facilities. Analysts, Rapidan Energy Group
These transport bottlenecks compound existing vulnerabilities in energy transit corridors, keeping pressure on global supplies while Houthi forces continue launching attacks on commercial cargo vessels in the Red Sea.
Wall Street Revisions and Goldman Sachs Price Warnings
Financial institutions across Wall Street are actively recalibrating their energy forecasts. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group indicated earlier in the week that prolonged trade disruptions could drive Brent crude past $120 per barrel. The global benchmark already surpassed the $100 mark for the first time in two months as tensions between Washington and Tehran escalated, putting the commodity on track for monthly gains exceeding 30 percent.
Chinese Demand Counterweights and Strategic Stockpiles
Even as supply risks mount, upward price pressures face a partial offset from sluggish demand in China. Rapidan expects that if Brent crude settles within a range of $90 to $100 per barrel, Beijing will continue drawing down its crude oil reserves at a pace of less than 500,000 barrels per day through the end of 2026. Stockpile accumulation is projected to resume early next year.
