Argentina’s wholesale dollar could reach $1,850 by December 2026, according to a FocusEconomics survey of 15 banks and consultoras. This comes as the country’s risk score hits 939 basis points.
The survey of 15 banks and consultoras suggests the dollar will face depreciation pressure before the end of the year. But futures markets show more subdued pricing.
Maximiliano Gutiérrez, an economist at Fundación Mediterránea, said there is a contradiction between a relatively stable dollar and sovereign bonds receiving increasingly severe punishment. He said this is driven by external factors, local uncertainty, and restrictive monetary conditions.
Pantheon Macroeconomics expects the wholesale exchange rate to hit $1,850 at the close of December 2026. Santander, Invecq Consulting, and UBS follow with forecasts of $1,700. Aurum projects a rate of $1,680, according to FocusEconomics data cited by cronista.com.
The Central Bank survey of expectations (REM) reported by El Cronista projects an average wholesale exchange rate of 1558 pesos for November 2026. The consensus for December is 1590 pesos. A Top 10 forecaster average is 1580 pesos. The LatinFocus survey lists 2027 forecasts from 1,618 pesos by 4intelligence up to 2,268 pesos by MAPFRE Economics.
In the parallel market, the blue dollar closed the preceding Friday at $1,440 for selling, El Cronista noted. Fenix Multiplataforma reported the wholesale dollar opened the week at $1,545.5. Surveyed actors forecast the formal exchange rate to stand at 2,208 pesos per dollar over the long term.
The Matba-Rofex futures market trades the wholesale dollar for late December around $1,599. This is below the $1,625.3 consensus average tracked by iProfesional. For October 2027, forward contracts climb toward $1,998.
Argentina faces external debt commitments of about $29,000 million in 2027. These obligations add to anxieties over reserve accumulation.
The Central Bank gathered $194 million across four trading sessions during a ten-wheel window. This shows constrained reserve inflows. Liquidity is tight alongside elevated sovereign risk metrics.
The official policy involves a peso that floats inside a moving band linked to past inflation, El Cronista noted. Alternative exchange rates show monthly depreciations below 1% and a narrowed FX gap.
The Treasury has to buy many dollars to be able to pay the January 9 maturities, so if it doesn’t buy them, I don’t think they can get another REPO with this country risk, or otherwise a very high rate will have to be paid.
Pablo Repetto, manager at Aurum
Repetto told iProfesional that the projected price trajectory represents a normal expectation given the Treasury’s foreign currency requirements. He said inflation is anticipated to remain steady around 2% per month.
Sovereign debt instruments are absorbing heavier losses. But the official foreign exchange rate is contained by monetary tightening and peso scarcity.
Analysts suggest that the sustainability of this stability depends on future reserve flows and foreign exchange management.
