The Republican defeat in the US midterm elections was watched closely in Russia, where observers predict it could herald more support for Ukraine when the Democrats take over Congress in January.
Yet if the Kremlin feels the ticking of a clock on its nearly five-year-old full-scale invasion of its neighbor, it remains outwardly unperturbed by the shift in Washington’s legislative power.
Diplomatic Channels and the View From Moscow
Asked by journalists whether the poll results might obstruct American initiatives to help broker a peace accord between Kyiv and Moscow, Kremlin representative Dmitry Peskov expressed optimism that US President Donald Trump would persist with his peace initiatives.
In a conversation with pro-Kremlin Alexander Yunashev, Peskov stated that Moscow is fully anticipating Trump to Peskov highlighted headway in diplomatic channels, pointing to upcoming trilateral discussions among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine planned for the following week.
He additionally mentioned a humanitarian mission in Oleshky, a frontline town under Russian occupation, where Ukrainian and Russian authorities repeatedly expressed gratitude to US First Lady Melania Trump for her role in facilitating a truce.
Peskov shrugged off questions on whether the new Congress would challenge Trump’s stance on Russia and Ukraine, dismissing it as an internal matter for the United States.
Trump Reverses Pressure on Russia with Diesel Deal
Trump’s recent moves have appeared to favor Moscow. During the previous month, he finalized an agreement to import diesel fuel from Russia, abruptly reversing years of American pressure against the Kremlin and provoking disappointment among Ukraine and its European partners.
Asserting that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries caused American diesel costs to surge, he called on Kyiv to suspend the attacks, even though global energy price increases were primarily fueled by the conflict involving Iran.
Trump also issued an executive order putting sweeping new sanctions on hold, telling Congress the pause served the national interest. Lawmakers from both parties blasted the move as benefiting Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Concurrently, Ukraine reported a throttling of Starshield, the military-grade version of Starlink satellite internet owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The Kremlin played down the development, stating deliveries will continue.
Kyiv desperately needs to replenish US-made Patriot interceptors to fend off ballistic missile attacks. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeatedly requested expedited delivery, US stockpiles were exhausted by the Iran war, leading Washington to prioritize its own arsenals. On October 30, the Trump administration approved a proposed $2.1 billion sale of Patriot interceptors for Ukraine.
Democrats Could Increase Congressional Pressure on Trump
Observers across Russia suggest that the Democratic triumph could compel Trump to exercise greater caution due to legislative scrutiny. Dmitry Medvedev, who served as Russian president from 2008 to 2012 and now serves as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, predicted that Trump would be less inclined to press Ukraine when a new Congress is seated. “He doesn’t need an extra confrontation with Democrats,” Medvedev noted.
Strong bipartisan support for Ukraine raises the prospect of veto-proof aid packages or tough new sanctions on Moscow. Zelensky told German broadcaster ZDF that while backing exists from both parties, Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine. Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter turned political analyst, argued that Putin missed a window of opportunity before the Democrats won.
