The world is on course for its hottest year on record, driven by warming from climate change and an intensifying El Niño, according to scientists gathering for the opening of COP31 in Turkey.
Berkeley Earth Forecasts Record Temperatures for 2026
Independent US research group Berkeley Earth is 95% confident that 2026 will surpass the previous global heat record set in 2024, even with two months left in the year. The group’s assessment follows a string of record warm years, including an October that the EU’s Copernicus climate service confirmed as the hottest on record.
The main driver of rising global temperatures has been the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely caused by burning fossil fuels. Dr Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth noted that recent months have brought extensive wildfires across Europe and a glacier collapse in Nepal that killed more than 1,000 people.
Dr Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth said that the world has had a run of record warm years, which is what is expected as global warming progresses, pointing to glaciers collapsing, record-breaking heatwaves and droughts.
Rohde warned that current conditions mark only the beginning of broader disruptions. There is potential for much larger and much more dramatic changes down the line,
he said.
WMO State of the Climate Update Details Ocean Heat and Sea Levels
Released on the first day of the UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Türkiye, the UN World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate Update 2026 reports that the past 12 years (2015–2026) are set to be the warmest on record.
Global average surface temperatures from January to September were about 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Meanwhile, preliminary data through July point to a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat content, and global mean sea level reached its highest point in the satellite record, which began in 1993.
El Niño Intensifies and Threatens 2027 Weather Extremes
An El Niño event has intensified since August and is expected to reach record strength by December, releasing heat from the ocean and increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall. The WMO forecasts that this powerful system will continue into next year, pushing temperatures higher well into 2027.
While the WMO’s official outlook forecasts that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record—maintaining a slightly more cautious stance than Berkeley Earth—both organizations agree that next year will offer no let-up. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the trajectory as an event that gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts
.
