Arizona Democrats Chase Two Congressional Seats Ahead of November Midterms
With the midterm elections fast approaching on November 3, Arizona Democrats are ramping up their ground game in an aggressive push to flip two key congressional seats from Republicans. WBUR reported that the effort centers heavily on Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where volunteers in North Phoenix recently gathered to hear Representative Greg Stanton issue a direct call to action.
Go win,
Stanton told the crowd. Don’t lose!
Stanton was energizing canvassers working on behalf of local Democratic candidates, including Amish Shah. Shah is running for the open seat in C.D. 1, which stands as one of two competitive districts Democrats believe they can capture this cycle. Make no mistake, this race right here, C.D.1, is the most important race in the entire United States of America,
Stanton said during the rally.
The Battleground in Congressional District 1
Registered Republicans hold a distinct registration advantage in the district, outnumbering Democrats by roughly 60,000 voters across the wealthy suburban expanse of the Sonoran Desert foothills. Shah is no stranger to the territory. He ran two years ago against the Republican incumbent, Representative David Schweikert, and narrowly lost.
This time around, Schweikert chose to run for governor, leaving an open seat that has drawn intense national attention. Shah frequently invokes the area’s political lineage to appeal to local sensibilities.
This was the district that John McCain used to be in,
Shah said, according to reporting from WBUR. He was the maverick, and he always put Arizona first. That’s what I’m hoping to continue to do in Washington.
A former state lawmaker and emergency room doctor, Shah faces Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker and broadcaster. Feely launched his political ambitions after attending President Trump’s political convention in Texas, where he pointed to the 2024 assassination attempt against Trump in Pennsylvania as his primary motivation. Speaking at the convention, Feely recalled seeing Trump with blood on his face raising a fist, prompting him to leave a 14-year NFL career and a 10-year broadcasting run to enter politics. Feely’s campaign did not respond to requests for an interview.
Independent Voters May Decide Race Amid Economic Disputes
National concerns loom large over the district, with inflation, gasoline prices, and the war in Iran serving as major friction points during a recent candidate debate. The two contenders also clashed directly over data centers. Feely argued that the facilities would inject much-needed revenue into the state’s economy, while Shah stated he does not want them built within the district.
According to the Cook Political Report, the race currently leans in Shah’s favor. Yet, as with nearly every competitive contest in Arizona, the definitive outcome rests with independent voters. Unaffiliated voters account for one-third of all registered participants in the district.
Arizona voters are pretty moderate voters, both Democrats and Republicans,
Samara Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona, told WBUR. It’s the Democratic campaigns in Arizona who seem to be winning over that centrist mentality much more than the Republicans.
While Arizona independents have trended leftward in recent election cycles to help elect a Democratic governor and two U.S. senators, they also broke for Trump in 2024. Klar noted that historical polling has frequently overstated support for Democrats, suggesting races often finish much closer than projections indicate.
Republican Pushback in Pima County and Beyond
Arizona Republicans remain resolute against Democratic projections. Kathleen Winn, chair of the Pima County Republican Party in Tucson, expressed skepticism regarding modern polling data.
The best poll is on Election Day,
Winn said.
Winn is actively working to boost voter turnout in nearby Congressional District 6, which stretches across a vast expanse of rural Southeastern Arizona and represents the second critical seat Democrats are targeting. Despite Democratic ambitions, Winn remains confident. I don’t expect a wave,
she stated. There will be one-offs, there will be races we may lose. But overall, I’m confident if people vote not with their emotions, but vote with facts, the Republicans win walking away.
Both parties are pouring resources into grassroots outreach as election day draws nearer. Canvassers like Dana Rakinic continue knocking on doors across North Phoenix, engaging crucial undecided voters such as Emily Schwartz. Schwartz, a Jewish independent voter, finds herself torn between supporting Republicans over their alliance with Israel and opposing Trump’s policies on reproductive rights and women. Despite her frustrations with both political extremes, Schwartz confirmed she intends to support Democrats in the upcoming congressional races.
