Fresh off a blowout victory against USC, the Wisconsin Badgers find themselves in an entirely unfamiliar position: looking at a path where a bowl game—and potentially much more—is within reach. With five regular-season games left on the schedule, ESPN's latest predictive metrics give college football fans plenty to chew on as Luke Fickell’s squad plays the final games of the 2026 campaign.
The Road Ahead: ESPN Projections for the Final Five Games
Things change fast in the Big Ten. Just a couple of seasons removed from missing out on bowl eligibility entirely, this Wisconsin team can lock up a postseason berth as early as Saturday, October 31, ESPN reported. But getting there won’t be a walk in the park.
According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the final stretch breaks down across five distinct challenges:
- Saturday, Oct. 31: 42.7% chance to win at Iowa
- Saturday, Nov. 7: 90.0% chance to win vs. Rutgers
- Saturday, Nov. 14: 81.5% chance to win at Maryland
- Saturday, Nov. 21: 68.8% chance to win at Purdue
- Friday, Nov. 27: 81.6% chance to win vs. Minnesota
Those numbers leave the Badgers with a projected final regular-season record of 9-3 overall and 7-2 in conference play. To turn those projections into reality—or exceed them—Wisconsin will need to rely on the momentum built from victories at Penn State and their recent blowout over USC.
Badgers Carry Momentum into Iowa City Matchup
Being pegged as underdogs heading into Iowa City on Halloween makes sense on paper, especially given the historic grit of Kinnick Stadium. Yet, the Badgers carry vital momentum into the matchup, particularly with Iowa licking its wounds following a surprising loss to Minnesota.
Speaking of the Golden Gophers, ESPN’s odds heavily favor Wisconsin in that regular-season finale—a striking forecast given how solidly Minnesota has performed throughout the year. Meanwhile, games against Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue carry favorable percentages for the Badgers, though coaching staffs know better than to look past a tricky road trip to West Lafayette.
A clean 5-0 sweep down the stretch, paired with some outside help from the rest of the Top 25, could thrust Wisconsin into the Big Ten Championship conversation or put them squarely in the mix for the College Football Playoffs. For now, the focus shifts entirely to Saturday night in Iowa.
