JD Vance to Rally for Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st District

Vice President JD Vance is planning to headline a rally in Ogdensburg this Monday to support Republican congressional candidate Anthony Constantino in New York’s 21st Congressional District. The visit, reported by the Times Union, signals a tightening race in a district that has been a Republican stronghold for all but five years since the Civil War.

While the 21st District—which spans the Adirondack Park and the Champlain, St. Lawrence, and Mohawk valleys—was previously considered safe territory, the current contest between Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien has become unexpectedly competitive. The deployment of the vice president to the North Country is the first time someone from the White House will appear at a rally held within the North Country congressional district this midterm season.

A fight for a traditional stronghold

The seat was previously held by U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, who opted not to seek a seventh term. Stefanik had maintained a dominant grip on the region, including a 24-point victory in 2024. Constantino, the CEO of Sticker Mule, is attempting to maintain that margin, but he is facing a different kind of opponent in Blake Gendebien.

Gendebien is a dairy farmer from Lisbon, just 12 miles from the planned rally site. He has positioned himself as a bipartisan moderate, specifically targeting the administration’s trade policies. Ogdensburg is located across the St. Lawrence River from Canada and is the site of a bridge connecting the two countries.

The polling reflects this volatility. A Siena Research Institute poll sponsored by the Times Union showed Gendebien leading by four points. While other polls released by the Gendebien campaign suggest Constantino holds a slight edge, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has already downgraded the district twice this year, moving it from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Logistics and the “Admission” of Risk

According to the Times Union, Secret Service agents were spotted canvassing Ogdensburg International Airport earlier this week. Ultimately, officials decided Vance would land at the airfield at the Fort Drum military base in Jefferson County instead. While the White House and Constantino’s campaign have not officially confirmed the details, and a spokeswoman for Fort Drum declined to comment on the arrival, the logistical footprint is hard to ignore.

The Gendebien campaign is framing this high-profile visit not as a show of strength, but as a sign of panic. Michael Waller, a spokesman for Gendebien, argued that flying in the vice president the day before an election is an admission that the seat is at risk.

“You don’t fly the vice president into a plus-24 seat the day before the election unless you know you’re losing it,” Waller said. “If the administration wants to see what its trade war did, Ogdensburg is the right stop.”

The “trade war” Waller mentions refers to the implementation of tariffs with Canada, a policy Gendebien has criticized as detrimental to the local economy.

Surging turnout in the North Country

Regardless of who is leading in the polls, more people are showing up than in previous cycles. Early voting, which began Saturday, has seen a massive spike across the 15 counties of NY-21. In Washington County, early voting totals increased by more than 235% compared to two years ago. In St. Lawrence County, the site of the upcoming rally, totals surged by 196% in the first two days.

The contrast between the candidates is stark: Constantino is known for a brash social media presence and theatrical antics that have occasionally alienated members of his own party, while Gendebien leans into his identity as a local producer and moderate.

Vance’s trip to New York is part of a broader, aggressive push to secure the congressional majority, following similar stops in Michigan, Montana, and Alaska. By landing in the North Country, the administration is betting that the Trump-aligned Constantino can override the issues Gendebien is tapping into.

Whether a single rally can pivot a district that is seeing early turnout increases is uncertain. The question now is whether the voters of the 21st District will prioritize national party loyalty or the specific economic pressures of the border.

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