With less than a week until Election Day, the Democratic coalition in Michigan is showing deep, public fractures that could decide the outcome of the Senate race.
The stakes extend far beyond a single seat in the Senate. Because Michigan is a crucial swing state, the performance of El-Sayed—a figure closely aligned with the progressive left—is being viewed by national strategists as a litmus test for the 2028 presidential cycle. If El-Sayed wins, progressives will argue that a Bernie Sanders acolyte can capture the presidency; if he loses, mainstream Democrats will likely use the defeat as evidence that voters in battleground states aren’t willing to swing too far left, according to analysis from NBC News.
Democratic Rifts Grow over Jewish Vote
The tension within the Democratic camp shifted from private grumbling to public conflict this week. Jason Turkish, the fiancé of Rep. Haley Stevens—El-Sayed’s former primary opponent—told The Detroit News that he intends to vote for the Republican nominee, Mike Rogers. The move highlights a lingering rift, particularly among Michigan’s large Jewish community, where concerns persist over El-Sayed’s past remarks regarding Israel and his associations with figures like controversial streamer Hasan Piker.
The temperature rose further following an advertisement by Rebellion PAC, an independent left-wing group, which attempted to link U.S. support for Israel to the rising cost of groceries. El-Sayed distanced himself from the ad, stating it was not something he wanted to be talking about, but party leaders, including Rep. Stevens, have urged him to go further and explicitly denounce the content. Stevens, who drew significant support from Black and Jewish voters during the primary, appeared on CNN to reaffirm her support for El-Sayed while urging his campaign to “shut out the hate and call it out” to make her coalition feel comfortable at the polls.
Further friction emerged from a campaign ad featuring praise from former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Rabbi Aaron Starr of Congregation Shaarey Zedek in Southfield criticized both the Rebellion PAC ad and the El-Sayed campaign’s use of Carlson, noting that instead of improving over the last seven weeks, the political climate has actually worsened.
“We are one week away from the election, and it feels like the temperature has turned way up,” Rabbi Starr said during a call with reporters.
Mike Rogers Balances Trump Alignment with Local Ties
Republican Mike Rogers is attempting to capitalize on these Democratic divisions while managing his own liabilities. Rogers has remained closely aligned with Donald Trump, appearing with him at a rally in Port Huron. This alignment presents a paradox: while Rogers credits Trump with returning manufacturing jobs to Michigan, the rally took place in a city with deep economic ties to Canada—a country Trump has targeted with tariffs.
Republicans are also attempting to frame the Democratic divide as a broader ideological shift. During an event hosted by the Republican Jewish Coalition in Birmingham, Sen. Ted Cruz accused Democrats of being overtaken by “self-proclaimed communists and Islamists.” This echoes Trump’s own rhetoric; the former president has repeatedly attacked El-Sayed’s Muslim faith, calling him a “jihadist” and claiming he is “on the side of terrorists.”
The Battle for Wayne County
Both candidates are now locked in a fight for Black voters in Detroit’s Wayne County, the same area where Rep. Stevens defeated El-Sayed in the primary. El-Sayed is attempting to shore up this base by campaigning with Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina and focusing heavily on turnout in Detroit.
Rogers has also made inroads in the city, visiting a reading remediation program at a local high school and discussing housing costs in Pontiac. However, some of these efforts have been dismissed as superficial. Ruby Farmer, a 68-year-old Detroit retiree, criticized Rogers’ wife for handing out $10 gas cards at a local station, suggesting the candidates only visit the inner city for such gestures.
For voters like Farmer, the choice isn’t about the internal drama of the Democratic party, but about the tangible impact of federal policy. Farmer, who has a son with special needs, noted that cuts to Medicaid and freezes on benefits for home care workers in Michigan have directly harmed her family—policies she attributes to the Trump administration’s influence. Despite her admitted difficulty pronouncing El-Sayed’s name, she cast her ballot for him three weeks ago.
The outcome will be decided on Election Day, leaving the party to decide if a progressive surge can overcome a fractured coalition or if the mentality of 2020 will return to guide the road to 2028.
