The Midterm Test for Texas Redistricting
The gospel music from Mount Hebron Missionary Baptist Church spills into the streets of Sunnyside, a predominantly Black neighborhood in southern Houston. It is a familiar scene on any given Sunday, but with the US midterm elections just two days away, the service is taking place on the front line of a fierce congressional redistricting battle.
For two decades, Mt Hebron sat comfortably within the ninth congressional district. Its politically engaged congregation helped elect Democrat Al Green, a fixture in Congress known for his opposition to US President Donald Trump. Following an appeal from Trump, however, the Republican state legislature last year conducted a rare mid-decade redistricting cycle, redrawing the church and its surrounding Black community into the Black-majority 18th district.
Critics call the process “cracking and packing,” arguing it diminishes the legislative representation of minority groups by consolidating heavily Democratic Black communities into fewer districts. Pastor Max Miller, who has served at the church for 18 years, sees a direct assault on voting rights.
“They are trying to manipulate and monopolise the vote and minimise the people who are in those districts,” Miller told Al Jazeera. “We see so much rolling backwards that it looks like they’re trying to take a script from an old song and turn back the hands of time.”
Fallout in Houston and Across the Country
The map changes upended local politics immediately. Because the redrawing forced Green to run in a primary against 18th district incumbent Christian Menefee—another Black Democrat—Green lost, and Houston lost one of its Black representatives in Congress. Meanwhile, the ninth district was redrawn to favor Republicans, serving as one of at least five US congressional seats the party hopes to capture in the midterm vote.
The changes have deeply resonated with longtime voters. Ninety-seven-year-old Alice Jefferson, who followed Green throughout his political career, lamented the shift. “I don’t like the redistricting at all because Al Green was moved out,” she said. Janice Ray, a 61-year-old home health aide and entrepreneur, dismissed the maneuver bluntly: “To me, it was all a bunch of BS. There was no reason for it. But we’ll stand firm, regardless of what they try to do. Because just like it was changed, it can always be changed back.”
Texas was only the beginning. State legislatures across the country joined the map-redrawing spree. Republicans successfully altered maps in Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and Ohio, while Democrats redrew lines in California and secured a favorable seat via a court-ordered map in Utah. A Democratic push in Virginia was ultimately invalidated.
Supreme Court Ruling Permits Racial Gerrymandering Claims
Redrawing maps mid-decade without waiting for fresh census data was already atypical, but many of the maps drawn this year would have been deemed illegal in previous cycles under Section 2 of the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965. That law long prohibited redrawing congressional maps to dilute minority voting power. However, in April, the conservative-dominated US Supreme Court ruled that anyone challenging such a map must prove “racist intent,” a bar critics argue is unreasonably high and effectively greenlights racial gerrymandering.
Defenders of the Texas map argue the changes reflect shifting demographics rather than race. State Representative Todd Hunter, a Republican, defended the passage last year by emphasizing population growth and changing voter trends. “This plan includes political considerations, public testimony, recognition of population growth and recent changes in voter trends,” Hunter said shortly after the map’s passage, noting that the newly drawn districts trend Republican in political performance.
Yet, redistricting does not guarantee voter behavior. About 35 million US voters are casting ballots in newly redistricted seats this midterm election. Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor at the University of Houston, pointed out the core uncertainty of the strategy to Al Jazeera: “Redistricting can change the political boundaries, but it can’t guarantee how voters will behave.”
In Texas, the Republican map relied heavily on recent Latino voting trends, a demographic that swung strongly for Trump in 2024. But political tides shift quickly. Trump’s popularity has faced headwinds among Latino voters amid economic anxieties and deportation concerns. Dayana Iza, Texas state director of the Latino voting organization Mi Familia Vota, noted that while the new ninth district retains a large population of low-propensity Latino voters, turnout remains the primary hurdle. On the Saturday before the vote, Democratic candidate Leticia Gutierrez and State Senator Molly Cook canvassed eastern Houston neighborhoods, focusing heavily on affordability. Gutierrez noted that voters frequently mentioned the high cost of living, remarking, “At this point, it’s not a left or a right thing anymore. This is an affordability crisis.”
Whether aggressive mapmaking will withstand voter dissatisfaction remains the central question hanging over the ballot boxes across Texas and the nation.
