Global oil flows from the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 92 percent of pre-war levels, driven by U.S. naval escorts, shuttle tankers, and increased pipeline capacity. This recovery occurs even as Iranian restrictions and commercial shipping attacks persist in the vital waterway.
More than seven months after the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran led to an effective shutdown of the crucial waterway, trade data indicates that crude movements have staged a substantial recovery. According to navigational data from the tracking firm Kpler, daily oil flows from the Middle East reached 92 percent of their baseline pre-war volume during the final week of September.
U.S. Naval Protection and Shuttle Tankers Bypass the Strait
The operational revival rests on three primary mechanisms: military escorts, shuttle logistics, and overland pipelines. The U.S. military has provided protection to commercial vessels since at least mid-June, with U.S. Navy data showing a one-third increase in assisted transits in September compared to August.
Martin Kelly, senior intelligence analyst at EOS Risk Group, told the BBC that American support centers primarily on aerial defense, including air support for vessels, issuing warnings, and intercepting incoming drone, missile, and boat threats. Tankers utilizing the southern route recommended by the United States near the coast of Oman—avoiding the Iranian-controlled northern channel—continue to face threats. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project recorded the highest number of successful Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in September since March.
To mitigate risk within the maritime corridor, operators rely heavily on a shuttle system comprising more than 60 large crude carriers. Over 70 percent of the crude passing through the passage in August was transferred from these shuttle vessels to other ships in the Gulf of Oman, with satellite imagery showing these ship-to-ship transfers occurring off the port of Sohar in Oman.
Pipelines Divert Forty Percent of Regional Crude Exports
Land-based transit corridors have similarly absorbed a significantly larger share of regional exports. Roughly 40 percent of total crude exported from the region in September bypassed the maritime route entirely via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, compared to just 17 percent before the war.
Concurrently, analysts noted that higher Gulf shipments offset a drop of roughly one million barrels per day in Russian exports, muting the downward impact on global crude prices.
Global Oil Prices Remain Elevated Despite Increased Flows
Despite increased physical flows, global oil prices have remained elevated, with Brent crude hovering near $102.86 per barrel and West Trading Intermediate trading around 89.44.
Naveen Das, senior oil analyst at Kpler, observed that oil markets remain distrustful of the current status quo due to the ongoing threat of further escalation and potential shifts in American policy following midterm elections.
