Global oil prices retreated on Thursday, October 15, 2026, as investors weighed persistent supply risks in the Middle East against U.S. efforts to lower transit costs. Brent crude fell to 104.67 dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to 94.07 dollars per barrel in early trading.
Energy markets faced conflicting pressures on Thursday as maritime shipping disruptions in the Middle East collided with potential U.S. sanctions relief and rising production figures from Russia and the Gulf. Brent crude futures dropped 1.39 dollars to 104.67 dollars per barrel by 01:16 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.02 dollars to 94.07 dollars per barrel, retreating from a three-week high reached in the previous session.
The previous session’s gains followed an attack by Houthi forces on a Saudi Aramco facility and Iranian statements about new methods for targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Marine navigation officials reported that two vessels—a container ship and a bulk carrier—sunk near the strait after being struck by projectiles in separate incidents over a 24-hour window.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Risks and U.S. Sanctions Relief Proposals
With shipping lanes disrupted and freight transport costs surging to record highs due to the conflict, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is examining policy adjustments. According to a U.S. official, officials are studying whether to ease sanctions on shadow fleet vessels that previously transported petroleum from nations including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The goal is to contain climbing prices by permitting legal oil to move on previously restricted tankers.
However, uncertainty remains over whether commercial shipping companies would be willing to utilize those vessels. Despite ongoing Houthi drone and missile activity directed toward Saudi Arabia—including an intercepted drone destroyed in the kingdom's Eastern Region—the Arab Coalition confirmed that physical crude flows from the kingdom have not suffered substantial interruptions.
International Energy Agency Supply Projections and Russian Diesel Deliveries
Production data from major exporting nations has helped cap the upward momentum of prices. Persian Gulf crude exports also recovered to about 75 percent of pre-conflict levels during the same month.
Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Price Estimate Amid Geopolitical Risk
Financial institutions have adjusted their price forecasts to reflect the ongoing geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent price estimate to 90 dollars per barrel from 85 dollars previously, while analysts estimated the current geopolitical risk premium at slightly above 20 dollars per barrel.
Meanwhile, energy operators including Shell, Chevron, and BP resumed offshore staff redeployment and production activities in the Gulf of Mexico following earlier disruptions from Hurricane Isaias.
