Polymarket is investigating suspicious trading activity after hundreds of new accounts placed profitable bets on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party just before polls closed on Oct. 27. Some accounts have already cashed out combined profits exceeding $100,000 following favorable exit polls.
The surge in activity centered on two specific markets: one regarding whether Netanyahu would remain prime minister and another on whether the Likud party would secure the most seats in the Knesset. According to a Bloomberg analysis of the blockchain ledger, more than 600 wallets were created on the same day with no prior trading history before placing these wagers.
These trades shifted rapidly from speculative to profitable once Israeli television networks published exit polls. Those results suggested Likud performed better than early reports indicated, causing Netanyahu’s implied probability of becoming prime minister to climb to 54%, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s odds dropped to 23%. For several months before the vote, prediction markets had generally favored Eisenkot over Netanyahu as the likely next prime minister.
Sanctioned Wallets Fund High Profit Account
While some traders have already withdrawn funds, many hold significant unrealized gains. One newly opened account stands to earn approximately US$180,000 in profits if both its Netanyahu and Likud positions pay out.
The origins of this specific account have drawn particular scrutiny. It reportedly received a deposit of about $39,995 from cryptocurrency wallets on the Tron blockchain that had been flagged by blockchain explorers for malicious activity and interactions with sanctioned addresses.
Internal and External Teams Review Suspicious Wallets
Polymarket’s internal investigative team is currently reviewing dozens of the newly created wallets. This internal effort is mirrored by outside data analysis firms Polysights and Bubblemaps, both of which have flagged the activity as suspicious. Because Polymarket is an international cryptocurrency-based exchange, every transaction is logged on a public ledger using blockchain technology, enabling researchers to examine trading patterns for coordinated activity.
Bubblemaps provided a more granular count to Reuters, identifying 101 Polymarket accounts that received their first funding on Election Day before the polls closed. A representative from the firm confirmed that some of those accounts sold their positions for a profit immediately after the exit polls became public.
Despite the timing, investigators have not yet established that the traders relied on confidential information. Profitable bets can also result from original research, accurate political forecasts, or luck. No evidence has been presented linking the suspicious bets to manipulation of the Israeli vote count or election results.
US Senators Question Election Market Manipulation
The timing of these bets has triggered a response in Washington. On Oct. 29, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and Republican Senator John Curtis sent a letter to Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, questioning the platforms’ ability to police manipulation in election markets.
The identification of isolated instances of improper trading does not demonstrate that these markets are adequately protected. Instead, it raises serious questions about how much similar activity may be going undetected.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis, via Straitstimes
This case follows a pattern of prediction markets being used to wager on sensitive state secrets.
- Israeli Military Operations: Earlier in 2026, Israeli authorities charged a civilian and a military reservist for allegedly using secret military information to bet on operations against Iran.
- Venezuela Operation: US federal prosecutors charged soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly using confidential details of a military operation in Venezuela to profit more than US$400,000 on Polymarket; Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
- Iran Conflict: Bubblemaps previously identified nine linked anonymous accounts that earned over $2.4 million betting on US military outcomes in the Iran conflict.
Polymarket Deploys Team to Monitor Midterm Wagers
As the US prepares for the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Polymarket is deploying a 16-person team and a new monitoring system to track wagers. Shana Bautista, the company’s head of global intelligence and investigations, told NPR that her team has already investigated dozens
of election-related cases.
Regarding those attempting to exploit the system, Bautista warned, If you decide that you are smarter and can do it, we will find you.
