In a virtual “rally” call obtained by the Arizona Mirror, Republican candidates across Arizona voiced sharp concerns over lagging early ballot returns and the uphill climb facing their ticket as Election Day approaches.
The private rally brought together a slate of prominent GOP hopefuls, including state lawmaker Alexander Kolodin, who is running for Arizona Secretary of State. Kolodin pulled no punches when assessing the state of early voting returns with supporters on the call.
“I have to say, after we had a gangbusters start to the week, the drops today were quite less than I was hoping for,” Kolodin told the audience, as reported by the Arizona Mirror. “Now, we can still get to an R+10, which is what we need in order to sweep the executive branch. But today’s drops, they’re not going to get us there.”
The Numbers Behind the Anxiety
The closed-door meeting featured several high-profile candidates, including Andy Biggs and Sine Kerr, who are running for governor and lieutenant governor; Warren Petersen, the nominee for attorney general; and Jay Feely, contesting Congressional District 1, widely regarded as Arizona’s most competitive district.
Despite the party holding a nearly 300,000-voter registration edge over Democrats according to the final voter registration figures released by the Secretary of State’s office, Republican candidates warned that registration advantages mean little without active ballot delivery.
According to early ballot tracking by Democratic political consultant Sam Almy, more than 1.4 million Arizona voters have already returned their ballots. While Republicans maintained a narrow 16,600-ballot edge over Democrats through October 28, a higher percentage of total Democratic voters had already cast ballots at 43%, compared to 36% for Republicans. Meanwhile, just 22% of independent and minor-party voters had returned early ballots, with data showing independents leaning left this cycle.
“Where we really need to be is an R+10,” Petersen said on the call, noting that recent returns placed them at R+1.2. “The real issue is that the Dems are front loading very well.”
Petersen Urges Supporters to Use Digital Mobilization Apps
To combat the deficit in early returns, the candidates urged supporters to use digital mobilization tools. Petersen specifically pointed volunteers toward the Numinar app and a Turning Point USA application designed to cross-reference personal contact lists with voter files.
“We now have 700 people on the app. We want to hit 2,000 people, so that we can fully activate,” Petersen said. “The app tells you which of your contacts have not voted.”
With public polling consistently showing trailing numbers for Republican statewide candidates—including a recent poll showing Biggs trailing Katie Hobbs by 12 percentage points, Kolodin trailing Adrian Fontes by 11 points, and Petersen down 11 points to Attorney General Kris Mayes—speakers stressed that reliance solely on an Election Day surge would be a risky gamble.
“We don’t want to be so far behind that we need to just crush it on Election Day,” Petersen said. “We want to just go into Election Day where we can have a good Election Day, good turnout, and win.”
