The 1.7% factor in Alaska’s razor-thin Senate race
For months, the political narrative in Alaska was dominated by a single, urgent warning: that a candidate sharing a name with the Republican incumbent would trigger mass voter confusion and jeopardize the integrity of the election. President Donald Trump and the GOP argued that the presence of Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot posed a direct threat to the outcome. But as the dust begins to settle on the initial tallies, the data suggests a much quieter reality. According to Democracy Docket, the candidate at the center of the Department of Justice’s legal intervention has captured less than 2% of the vote.
With approximately 74% of ballots counted, Democrat Mary Peltola leads the incumbent, Senator Dan Sullivan, by just 626 votes. The unofficial election results show Peltola with 102,701 votes to the Senator’s 102,075. While Daniel J. Sullivan’s 1.7% share—totaling 3,583 first-choice votes—is technically larger than the current gap between the two leaders, it remains significantly smaller than the 2.9 percentage point margin that the New York Times currently projects for a Peltola victory.
While the DOJ sought to intervene to prevent certification if the incumbent lost, the state’s ballot was designed with specific distinctions. The ballot identified Dan S. Sullivan as the Republican incumbent and listed Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher, as a separate candidate without a party designation.
| Candidate | Vote Count (Approx.) | Percentage of First-Choice Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 102,701 | N/A (Leading) |
| Dan Sullivan (R – Incumbent) | 102,075 | N/A (Trailing) |
| Gerald Heikes (R) | 4,821 | 2.3% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 3,583 | 1.7% |
Legal challenges hit a wall of ballot secrecy
The attempt to litigate voter intent met a significant judicial hurdle on Sunday. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the DOJ’s lawsuit, which had sought to prevent the state from certifying the election under certain conditions. The administration’s argument rested on the idea that the state needed to investigate whether voters had mistakenly selected the second Sullivan instead of the Senator. However, the court found the government’s position lacked a practical application.
Judge Gleason noted that the administration failed to provide a “workable plan” to investigate those intentions without compromising the fundamental principle of the secret ballot. The ruling emphasized that the management of election time, place, and manner falls under the jurisdiction of the state, not the federal executive branch.
Alaska’s use of ranked-choice voting provides an additional layer of protection against accidental votes. Under this system, if a voter mistakenly selects Daniel J. Sullivan as their first choice, they may have still ranked the incumbent Senator as a subsequent preference. If the namesake candidate is eliminated during the tabulation process, those votes could potentially transfer to the Senator, effectively correcting any initial confusion.
The presence of multiple Republican candidates, including Gerald Heikes who secured 2.3% of the vote, complicates the math for the final tabulation.
The finality of the race depends on the completion of the official ranked-choice tabulation. Alaska is still processing eligible absentee and other outstanding ballots. If no candidate achieves a majority of first-choice votes, the formal ranking process is scheduled to begin on November 18. Until that date, the true influence of the Daniel J. Sullivan candidacy—and whether his 1.7% share could tip the scales in a race decided by hundreds—remains an open question.
