Arizona Democrats Win Legislative Control and Ignite Push for National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
Arizona’s a key state in play,
State Sen. Analise Ortiz told Axios following a major shift in state legislative power.
Democratic victories in recent elections handed the party control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in Arizona, alongside similar sweeps in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Axios reported that these simultaneous gains provide enough combined legislative strength to push an agreement known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact past the 270-vote threshold required for it to take effect.
Per Axios: With Democrats winning trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact now has 283 potential electoral votes, putting it above the 270 needed to take effect.
Launched in 2006, the compact has already been enacted by 18 states and Washington, D.C., locking in 222 electoral votes. The addition of five newly minted Democratic trifectas could elevate that total to 283 electoral votes, clearing the threshold needed to alter how Americans elect the president without amending the United States Constitution itself.
How the Electoral College Bypass Operates
Under the current system, Americans cast ballots for electors rather than directly choosing the president. Nearly every state currently awards its entire slate of electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, though Maine and Nebraska allocate theirs by congressional district.
However, the Constitution grants state legislatures explicit authority to appoint electors in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.
The compact leverages this exact power. Participating states agree to award all of their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the national popular vote, but the agreement only activates once the participating states collectively control 270 or more electoral votes.
The results grant Democrats the legislative power to potentially end the possibility of a candidate winning the White House while losing the nationwide popular vote and position state lawmakers to fundamentally alter presidential elections ahead of 2028.
Lawmakers Face State Legislative Hurdles over National Popular Vote
Despite the numerical threshold within reach, enacting the compact in all five new trifecta states remains an open question. Lawmakers in each of these jurisdictions have introduced legislation to join the compact in past sessions, but local political realities vary significantly.
State Rep. Quantá Crews, who sponsored National Popular Vote bills in the Arizona House over the past two years, declined to comment to Axios on whether she would introduce identical legislation in the upcoming session. While Arizona Democrats unanimously supported past National Popular Vote bills, those measures previously failed to receive hearings in either the House or Senate.
History also shows the path is far from guaranteed. Michigan failed to pass the compact during its previous Democratic trifecta spanning 2023 to 2024. In Nevada, the then-Democratic governor vetoed the compact in 2019, arguing that joining would diminish the state’s influence over presidential elections.
Beyond state-level legislative friction, the compact faces substantial legal challenges. Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller has argued that the agreement is unconstitutional without congressional approval, contending that the pact violates the Constitution’s Compact Clause. Even if participating states pass the legislation, the Electoral College would formally remain in place while courts decide the interstate agreement’s validity.
