Honolulu Braces for Election Day In-Person Voting Surge as Mail-In Ballots Lag Behind 2022
Honolulu elections officials are bracing for a last-minute surge of in-person voting on Tuesday that could once again delay the release of statewide election results. The impending rush comes as early returns of mail-in ballots from Oahu voters continue to lag about 20% behind the pace set at the exact same point in the 2022 midterm general election.
The sluggish mail-in numbers have forced election administrators to prepare for heavy crowds at service centers across the islands. By law, Hawaii voters must be allowed to cast ballots—and even register to vote—on Election Day as long as they are standing in line by the 7 p.m. cutoff. Because a holdup at a single polling location anywhere in the state delays the release of all election results, officials have warned residents to anticipate bottlenecks.
Rex Quidilla, administrator for the Honolulu Office of Elections, said that he expects final tallies to stretch late into Tuesday night. This late-night wait is a familiar script for Hawaii general elections, which have relied primarily on mail-in voting since 2020. Yet this year’s environment feels distinct, marked by a pedestrian election season featuring few high-profile statewide races to draw casual voters.
Governorship and congressional contests lack competitive drama this cycle. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Josh Green is widely expected to secure a second term, running alongside his new lieutenant governor teammate, outgoing Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. Their Republican challengers, Gary Cordery for governor and Daniel Anthony for lieutenant governor, have faced an uphill battle. Rep. Jill Tokuda is contending with a long-shot challenge from Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa. Neither U.S. Sens. Brian Schatz nor Mazie Hirono are up for reelection.
Voters Alter Habits as Anxiety Drives Both Sides to Polls
Despite the lack of marquee statewide battles, voters are altering their habits for divergent political reasons. Colin Moore, a public policy professor at the University of Hawaii, noted that anxiety is driving both sides of the aisle to the polls in unusual ways.
You’re seeing this happening on the left and the right this time. For conservatives, they’ve always been suspicious of mail-in voting. But for Democrats, they’re concerned about some sort of meddling in the election or something happening with the Post Office. So it’s coming from both sides this time.
That partisan crosscurrent is clearly visible in the raw data. As of Friday, ballots arriving by mail across Honolulu were down 28% compared with the same point in 2022. While voters dropping off ballots at remote drop boxes and voter service centers increased by 33.6%, that bump has not been enough to offset the steep decline in postal returns. Overall, ballots collected via mail and drop boxes combined were down 21% on Oahu compared to two years ago.
Statewide, 210,309 people had voted as of Friday, including 205,830 through mail or drop boxes. For context, the 2022 midterm general election ultimately drew 419,363 total voters, resulting in a 48.7% turnout rate among registered voters. This year marks the first time election officials are tracking daily vote counts, preventing direct year-over-year comparisons of daily velocity, though overall participation remains on track for modest figures. Presidential years typically draw heavier crowds, such as the 60.7% turnout recorded during the 2024 general election.
Long Ballots Feature Twenty Proposed Charter Amendments
Voters heading into booths on Tuesday will face an unusually long ballot that could bog down lines. Honolulu ballots feature 20 proposed amendments to the city charter alongside two constitutional amendments. Quidilla urged residents to study their options ahead of time.
Among the charter amendments is a proposal to establish ranked-choice voting for nonpartisan municipal offices, including mayor, City Council, and prosecutor, beginning in 2032 if approved by voters and the Legislature. The reform would allow voters to rank up to five candidates, sparking a philosophical divide between the state’s Democratic Party, which supports the change, and the Republican Party, which opposes it.
Beyond Oahu, high-profile county races are drawing intense local attention. The race to succeed Kawakami on Kauai features a showdown between Council Chair Mel Rapozo and Kauai County Council member and former Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. Yuki Lei Sugimura, who has served on the County Council representing Upcountry Maui since 2016, is mounting a mayoral challenge against incumbent Richard Bissen in Maui County. Her campaign heavily critiqued Bissen’s contentious Bill 9, which sought to mandate the conversion of 6,208 short-term vacation rentals in South and West Maui into long-term housing options for local residents following the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires.
With mailed ballots now past the point of guaranteed timely delivery, Quidilla emphasized that voters must drop off their ballots at an official site or vote in person by 7 p.m. Tuesday. For an electorate weighing local housing crises, administrative reforms, and national anxieties, the final hours of this election cycle promise a crowded, drawn-out finish.
