Two Iowa farmers are staring at almost doubled diesel bills this harvest season, and their sharply contrasting political choices heading into the midterm elections lay bare the growing friction within the state’s agricultural base. As President Donald Trump prepares to campaign in Dubuque on Sunday evening for his second Iowa visit ahead of the midterms, the economic reality on the ground is driving wedge issues straight through traditional party lines.
Skyrocketing Fuel Costs Hit Harvest Operations
The rising costs hit close to home in northwest Iowa, where Kelly Nieuwenhuis has spent more than 40 years farming corn and soybeans on his family farm in Primghar. His most recent fuel fill totaled about $16,000, paying $4.69 a gallon for harvest. That is a steep climb from the $6,000 to $7,000 range he paid just last spring.
Agricultural Policy Dives Wedge Through Party Lines
Nieuwenhuis attributes the higher fuel prices partly to the war in Iran, but he emphasizes that fuel is far from the only driver behind his mounting operating costs. Despite being a registered Republican and casting ballots for Donald Trump twice, Nieuwenhuis voted against him in 2024, citing long-standing frustrations that date back to the former president’s first term. Agricultural policy sits at the heart of his discontent.
“Biofuels are a huge part of my farming career and important to my farming profitability,” Nieuwenhuis said.
The Independent Streak Testing Political Analysts
While Trump is not on the ballot this cycle, his policies continue to heavily influence local voting behavior. Nieuwenhuis voiced support for Republican Ashley Hinson to replace Sen. Ernst, noting Hinson’s backing of year-round E-15 in the House farm bill. Even so, he refuses to check a straight Republican ticket, declaring plans to vote for Rob Sand for governor.
Megan Goldberg, political analyst for KCRG-TV9, noted that ticket splitting has become less common as national politics have grown increasingly polarized. Even so, she pointed out that split-ticket voting can swing close contests when margins are tight.
Nieuwenhuis is far from alone in his shifting calculus. This year, the Iowa Farmer’s Union backed a full slate of Democrats, marking a striking departure after decades of not endorsing federal candidates.
Holding the Line for the GOP in Benton County
Down in Benton County, however, fellow farmer Lance Lillibridge is holding the line for the GOP. Having voted for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024, Lillibridge plans to support Republican Zach Lahn for governor alongside Hinson for the Senate.
Like Nieuwenhuis, Lillibridge faces skyrocketing diesel and fertilizer expenses. But he points his finger in a different direction. Instead of blaming federal leadership, he targets corporate America for exploiting market vulnerabilities.
“Now, the administration should probably, again, put some oversight on this and deal with it,” Lillibridge said. “Obama didn’t deal with it. Biden didn’t deal with it, and it’s yet to be seen whether the Trump administration will deal with it.”
Shared Philosophy on Individual Candidates
Despite their divergent ballots, both Iowa farmers share a fundamental philosophy on modern elections: their votes belong to the individual candidate rather than any political party label.
