Democrat Amanda Janoo Leads Vermont Governor Phil Scott in Historic Poll, Despite His National Popularity
Newsweek reported that Vermont’s Republican Governor Phil Scott, long considered America’s most popular governor, faces an historic upset in the 2026 election, with Democrat Amanda Janoo leading him 51 percent to 43 percent in the final University of New Hampshire (UNH) Green Mountain State Poll. The survey, released Sunday, marks a sharp reversal for Scott, who has won re-election comfortably in recent years and holds a 74 percent approval rating in some rankings. The results highlight the volatile political climate in the Green Mountain State, where economic anxieties and changing voter priorities are reshaping the race.
The Paradox of Popularity: Scott’s Approval Ratings vs. Janoo’s Momentum
Scott’s national reputation as a consensus-builder and fiscal conservative has long shielded him from the partisan turbulence gripping much of the country. In April-June 2026, Morning Consult ranked him as the most popular governor with a net approval rating of +52, ahead of North Dakota’s Kelly Armstrong (+50) and Wyoming’s Mark Gordon (+49). Yet the UNH poll reveals a stark disconnect between his national standing and his vulnerability in Vermont. The governor, who described this race as “the toughest since 2016,” has seen his support hover near 43 percent in the final weeks, while Janoo, a 39-year-old economist with no prior elected office, has surged from 27 percent in June to 51 percent.
The data highlights a generational and ideological shift. Janoo, who campaigns on higher taxes for top earners and universal primary care—a policy backed by Senator Bernie Sanders—wins 78 percent of Democrats, up from 73 percent in September. Meanwhile, Scott retains 85 percent of Republicans but struggles to attract independents, who favor Janoo 51 percent to 39 percent. The poll also shows 38 percent of Janoo’s supporters voted for Scott in 2024, suggesting a broader realignment of voters disillusioned with the Republican Party’s national direction.
Economic Anxiety and Policy Divides: The Battle Over Vermont’s Future
Money is the defining issue for Vermont voters. The UNH poll found 17 percent of likely voters cited “affordability or inflation” as their top concern, followed by economic health and tax burdens. Janoo’s plan to raise taxes on high earners and expand healthcare access clashes directly with Scott’s argument that Vermont lacks the wealth to sustain such policies. “One person makes a billion dollars, and when that’s gone, that’s gone,” Scott said in an October debate, a line that encapsulates his fiscal conservatism.
The candidates also diverge sharply on education and technology. Janoo opposes Scott’s school merger policies, while the governor vetoed a bill regulating AI data centers in May. These differences reflect broader national debates about economic redistribution and regulatory oversight. For Vermont, a state with a small, highly educated population, the stakes are both symbolic and practical: the outcome could determine whether the state leans toward progressive experimentation or maintains its reputation as a fiscal anchor.
Polls Conflict, but Janoo’s Lead Holds
The UNH poll is the only one to show Janoo ahead in the general election, while State Navigate, a rival firm, had Scott up 49 percent to 46 percent in late October. Scott’s campaign has dismissed UNH’s methodology, calling its September poll “statistical malpractice” for overrepresenting Democrats. Yet the UNH data, weighted to 2024 election results, shows a 60-29-11 Democratic-Republican-Independent split in its sample. The Cook Political Report recently downgraded the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” while Polymarket and Kalshi both give Scott a 68 percent chance of winning.
Still, the race remains fluid. Vermont Public’s September poll gave Scott a 44-34 lead, but his approval ratings have dipped from 45 percent in the fall. Janoo’s favorability stands at 54 percent, compared to Scott’s 42 percent, suggesting a growing appetite for change. For Scott, the challenge is not just winning but redefining his image as a centrist leader in an era of deepening polarization.
“We started this campaign with a goal of building a movement of Vermonters who love this state,” Janoo said in a statement. “Vermonters who may not share the same backgrounds or lived experiences, but who believe we can do more for each other and for our state than sit on the sidelines when things get hard.”
The Devil’s Advocate: Why Scott Still Has a Path to Victory
Scott’s campaign argues that the UNH poll is an outlier, pointing to his 73.4 percent 2024 victory and the state’s historical Republican lean. Vermont, which hasn’t elected a Democrat for governor since 1996, remains a challenging environment for progressive candidates. Scott’s opposition to White House policies on tariffs and National Guard deployments has also resonated with conservative voters, who view him as a bulwark against federal overreach.
The governor’s ability to mobilize his base—30 percent of his 2024 voters shifted to Janoo, but 66 percent stayed loyal—shows he retains a loyal core. His campaign has also emphasized Vermont’s economic stability, noting the state’s low unemployment rate and strong healthcare infrastructure. For Scott, the key may lie in turning out disengaged Republicans, who have remained hesitant in recent polls.
New – Governor poll – Vermont🔵 Amanda Janoo 51%🔴 Phil Scott 43%UNH (B) – 10/31 pic.twitter.com/mzRIq8kjxp
What’s at Stake for Vermont and Beyond
If Janoo wins, she would become the first Democrat to unseat a sitting Republican governor in Vermont in over two decades. The result would indicate a change in the Northeast, where blue states like New Hampshire and New York have seen progressive candidates challenge GOP incumbents. For national Democrats, the race is a test of their ability to capitalize on economic discontent in traditionally red-leaning areas.
But the implications extend beyond Vermont. The state’s small size and policy experimentation make it a bellwether for debates over healthcare, taxation, and technology regulation. A Janoo victory could embolden progressive agendas in other states, while a Scott win would reinforce the viability of centrist governance in an increasingly polarized nation.
The final week of the campaign will hinge on voter turnout, last-minute messaging, and the interplay of national trends. With 140,000 ballots already cast by Friday, the race is already a microcosm of a country grappling with its economic and ideological future.
As the polls close, one truth is clear: in Vermont, the line between political inevitability and historic change is thinner than ever.
