Tropical Storm Pena forecast to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday

Tropical Storm Pena Gains Organization South of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Pena strengthened slightly while tracking westward well south of the Hawaiian Islands, according to the National Weather Service. The storm sat about 570 miles south-southeast of South Point on Hawaii island as of 11 p.m., packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts. Movement remained steady toward the west at roughly 12 mph, a trajectory forecasters expect the system to maintain over the coming days.

Satellite imagery shows the storm structure improving, featuring thunderstorms organizing closer to the center. Environmental conditions continue to favor steady development, aided by warm ocean temperatures, moist air, and light wind shear. Tropical-storm-force winds stretch outward up to 45 miles from the center. No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect.

Forecast Tracks Toward Hurricane Strength by Tuesday

Earlier updates from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center raised the strength forecast for the system. Forecasters project Pena to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday while passing far south of the archipelago. Computer models span a range from a strong tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane, showing broad agreement on the western path through the initial forecast period.

Winds are expected to climb to about 60 mph by early Saturday, reach 70 mph by early Sunday, and hit 75 mph by Tuesday. While the storm itself is projected to remain too far south to deliver direct rainfall to the islands, its outer moisture plume already impacted windward areas of the Big Island. That moisture brought 2 to 5 inches of rain over a 24- to 30-hour window.

Trade Winds Persist as New Swell Approaches

Cloudy and showery weather lingers across Maui County and the Big Island. Meanwhile, breezy to strong trade winds—reaching gale force at times in the channels between islands—will persist through the weekend as Pena passes to the south.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores fell below high surf advisory levels as of Friday afternoon. However, weather officials noted that a new north-northwest swell is expected to push surf back up to advisory heights by Sunday morning.