Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are planning a major counteroffensive involving tens of thousands of troops to push Iran-backed Houthi fighters away from the strategic Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to U.S. and regional officials.
The planned operation, which regional and Western officials say could mobilize more than 100,000 Yemeni troops, comes in response to Houthi advances last month that seized key areas of the southern Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait (Ynetnews). The strait serves as a critical maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, acting as a southern gateway for shipping between Asia and the Mediterranean (Ynetnews).
US Refuses to Join Saudi Military Operation
Riyadh is considering two primary scenarios for the upcoming campaign (Ynetnews). The first involves a limited offensive centered strictly around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while the second contemplates a broader operation featuring simultaneous ground strikes across multiple Yemeni provinces, including Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf (Ynetnews), (UNN).
Despite weeks of planning and final approval from Saudi leadership (Axios), the United States has rebuffed Saudi requests to join the operation with direct airstrikes (Axios). During a phone call between Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the request for kinetic action was turned down (Axios). A U.S. official stated that the U.S. is not going to take kinetic action for now
(Axios), noting that U.S. Central Command viewed strikes in Yemen as a distraction from its core focus on Iran (Axios). Even so, the U.S. military is actively assisting the campaign through intelligence support, military advisors, and targeting data, providing more than 200 Houthi targets for potential strikes over a two-week period (Axios), (Ynetnews).
Saudi Arabia is preparing this new offensive against the Houthis with the main objective of regaining control over the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea coast. Pakistan and Turkey are providing military support to Riyadh as well, with Pakistani military advisers operating alongside Saudi counterparts and Turkish drones previously purchased by Riyadh deployed over Yemen.
Religious Mobilization and Coalition Defense Networks
As preparations unfold, domestic and religious authorities have rallied public support. Saudi Arabia’s top religious authority, Grand Mufti Sheikh Saleh bin Fawzan Al-Fawzan, issued a strongly worded message through the Saudi state news agency SPA, urging soldiers stationed along the borders of Saudi Arabia to stay ready to give up their lives while fighting the Iran-backed Houthi movement as attacks on territory become more intense (The Sunday Guardian), (Arab News Japan). The Grand Mufti stated that restoring the authority of Yemen’s Saudi-backed recognized government across Yemen is one of the most urgent duties, calling for the defeat of the Houthis and those who assist them.
Parallel to the offensive planning, Riyadh has moved to secure its domestic infrastructure by widening its international defense network. France announced plans to deploy soldiers, radar systems, and defense equipment to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu to protect critical oil refining facilities (EnterpriseAM), (PressTV). Meanwhile, between 30,000 and 40,000 Pakistani troops have been stationed in Saudi Arabia to protect borders and assist with intercepting incoming missiles and drones (Ynetnews), (UNN), though Islamabad has not committed ground forces to combat operations inside Yemen (Ynetnews).
Strategic Calculations Along the Red Sea Coast
Regional analysts emphasize that any ground campaign will rely heavily on disparate Yemeni factions that remain fragmented from earlier phases of the civil war (Ynetnews).
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, observed that while military forces have prioritized defensive stabilization along the front lines, a transition to offensive maneuvers is certain (Ynetnews). At the same time, diplomatic tracks remain active, with indirect communication channels between the United States and the Houthis operating concurrently through Omani mediation (EnterpriseAM).
French expert François Frison, a specialist in Yemen and Gulf affairs, noted that the fall of the port of Mokha and the Houthi advance toward strategic positions overlooking the Red Sea raise serious questions about Saudi Arabia’s management of the Yemen file. According to analytical interpretations outlined by the French expert, any attempt to use the Houthi threat to reshape regional balances carries significant risks for Saudi Arabia and the wider region.
Mustafa Antar, Director of the Political Studies Program at the Yemen and Gulf Center for Studies, noted that a more probable approach involves calibrated escalation, supporting Yemeni partners, and targeting immediate threats. As military preparations continue, the immediate focus remains fixed on the trajectory of Houthi missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabia and the formal confirmation of timing and scope from Riyadh.
