Latvia faces a decisive parliamentary election on Saturday, held just five months after its previous government collapsed during a drone crisis. Prime Minister Andris Kolberg leads the center-right United List in the polls with 14.4% support, managing deep societal divisions over defense spending and unwavering aid to Ukraine.
Voters across Latvia are heading to the polls on Saturday for a critical parliamentary election following the collapse of the government five months ago during what became known as the drone crisis. Situated in northeastern Europe—bordered by Estonia to the north, Lithuania to the south, Russia to the east, Belarus to the southeast, and the Baltic Sea to the west—the country finds itself sharply split over foreign policy, national security, and economic survival.
United List Leads Polling but Cannot Form Government Alone
At the center of the political landscape sits Prime Minister Andris Kolberg and his center-right United List party. Throughout the campaign, Kolberg has championed unwavering support for Ukraine while working to bolster Latvia’s anti-drone capabilities and overall defensive readiness.
Polling data places the United List in the lead, yet it captures just 14.4% of the projected vote share, meaning Kolberg will not be able to form a government alone. The Prime Minister has pointed directly to the domestic friction generated by the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe.
The war in Ukraine has divided our society, and many people do not share the same vision.
Andris Kolberg, Prime Minister
Kolberg noted that a substantial portion of the population fails to view Russia as a threat or grasp why the state allocates heavy financial resources to defense, though he maintains that they are wrong in their assessment.
Security Dilemmas and Domestic Anxieties Shape Campaign Messaging
Campaign messaging has heavily invoked the security dilemma facing frontline Baltic states. Kolberg has warned voters that failing to prepare could lead Latvia to share the fate of Ukraine, which he stated lost 20% of its territory and suffered severe damage to its people, equipment, and economy due to its alignment with the West.
Parallel to these geopolitical debates are domestic anxieties surrounding language laws and integration. Mention of the marginalization of the Russian minority
brings to mind the justifications used by Moscow when it annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded Ukraine in 2022. For citizens like Angela, a music teacher who recently lost her job after failing a Latvian language examination, political promises to protect Russian speakers carry immediate, personal weight.
Sovereign Power and Opposition Dynamics in the Polls
Challenging the governing coalition’s pro-Western stance is the pro-Russian Sovereign Power party, which currently holds second place in opinion polls with 9.4% support. The party draws its political strength from Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority, accounting for roughly 23% of the nation’s residents.
Sovereign Power has pledged to cut off all assistance toward the war effort in Ukraine. Party leader Yulia Stepanenko captured the sentiment of her base succinctly during the campaign.
Our voters want peace.
Yulia Stepanenko, Sovereign Power party leader
Meanwhile, the Latvia First party has captured third place in the polls, steadily drawing voters who favor closer ties or alignment with Moscow. Campaign speeches in central Riga have featured explicit pledges from politicians promising to save the Russian language
and secure cheaper fuel and food supplies directly from Russia, while demanding an end to financial aid packages for Ukraine.
