Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has pulled ahead in Israel’s election count, yet both the incumbent leader and his primary challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, remain short of the parliamentary majority required to form a government, according to early results.
Blocs Fall Short of Knesset Majority as Votes Are Counted
As the vote count crossed major thresholds, the contours of Israel’s political deadlock sharpened. With 72 per cent of votes counted, the Likud-led bloc holds 54 seats, the Eisenkot-led bloc stands at 48, and Arab factions account for 18. Earlier counts at the 50 percent mark showed Netanyahu’s bloc at 54 and the anti-Netanyahu opposition at 48. Neither side has reached the 61 seats necessary for a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset, leaving the country facing intense political friction.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that his endorsement of Netanyahu turned around his campaign, describing the outcome as a “big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu.” Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, wrote on X that Netanyahu had lost the election, stating, “I know how to count to 120. 65 is more than 55. That’s how Israeli democracy works. Period.”
Record Arab Voter Turnout Shifts the Landscape
The election saw a dramatic surge in civic participation, registering the highest voter turnout since 1999 at 77.7 percent. This mobilization was especially pronounced among Palestinian citizens of Israel, where turnout exceeded 75 percent. Analysts and commentators noted that Arab voters, who comprise roughly 17 to 18 percent of the population, turned out at rates not seen since the 1996 Netanyahu-Peres election.
Estimates indicate that the Joint List and Ra’am, the two principal Arab political factions, are on track to secure a collective total of 17 to 19 seats. This strong showing positions them as potential kingmakers. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra’am party, outlined his priorities clearly on Tuesday, stating his intent to help bring down Netanyahu and his hardline ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Abbas suggested that Eisenkot and other opposition figures might prove more open to an alliance.
People of Israel, hold your heads high! The alliance of those who serve has defeated the alliance of draft dodgers. — Naftali Bennett
Despite this potential advantage, deep ideological divides remain. Past campaigns saw Netanyahu’s camp run billboards presenting voters with a choice between “Right or Palestine” and utilizing AI-generated videos to frame cooperation with Arab parties as a dangerous political liability, according to NDTV.
The Post-Election Calculus and What Comes Next
The final composition of the next government now depends heavily on the remaining ballots and subsequent coalition negotiations. Conservative-leaning Channel 14 exit polls projected Netanyahu’s bloc at 60 seats—just one shy of a majority—with Eisenkot at 43 and Arab parties holding 17, while other outlets reported varying internal shifts among smaller factions like Naftali Bennett’s B’yachad and Yisrael Beiteinu.
