Rhode Island Voters Head to the Polls as New Data Points to Democratic Sweeps
Rhode Island Democrats stand on the brink of an electoral sweep as voters cast their final ballots ahead of Tuesday’s general election, according to a survey released by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The poll of 753 likely voters, conducted between October 27 and 31, reveals that gubernatorial candidate Helena Buonanno Foulkes and Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos have widened their leads in the final stretch of the campaign.
The numbers upend earlier narratives of close races across the state. Nearly 120,000 Rhode Islanders had already cast ballots by Monday morning as early voting drew to a close. For Foulkes, the survey marks a major milestone: she has surpassed the 50% mark among likely voters, commanding a 21-point lead over independent gubernatorial candidate Ken Block. GOP nominee Aaron Guckian trails far behind at 8%. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.5%.
That momentum stands in sharp contrast to public polling from earlier in the month. Just weeks prior, WPRI-TV 12 and Emerson College pegged Foulkes 9 points ahead of Block. As the gap closed in mid-October, the race devolved into an escalating feud. The Rhode Island Democratic Party deployed attack mailers depicting Block as a duck and likened his policies on wages and healthcare to President Donald Trump. Block fired back with two complaints filed with the Rhode Island Board of Elections last week, alleging that party spending on behalf of Foulkes exceeded the limit in state law. The elections panel has not issued a comment on the filings.
Block also released a television ad casting Foulkes as a “puppet” of state labor unions, while Foulkes hammered her opponent over his opposition to the Affordable Care Act. The bitter public squabbling has left both candidates bruised. Nearly four in ten voters surveyed viewed Foulkes unfavorably, yielding a minus 2 approval rating. Yet that figure represents a recovery from a minus 13 rating in September. Block’s favorability has dipped as well, sliding from a positive 12 in September to a minus 1, though far fewer voters remain undecided about where they stand on his candidacy.
“As we head into Election Day, the momentum and energy are clearly with Helena,” Angelika Pellegrino, a spokesperson for Foulkes’ campaign, said in a statement Monday morning. “Rhode Islanders are ready for change and she is ready to get to work making life better.”
Breaking the Tie in the Lieutenant Governor’s Race
The contest for lieutenant governor has undergone a shift. State Republican officials had rallied around former state representative John Loughlin, positioning him as their strongest vehicle to capture a state office against Democratic incumbent Sabina Matos in a race that polls previously showed neck-and-neck.
Come meet your next Lt. Governor on October 29th in South Kingstown.@Republicans @LoughlinRI1 pic.twitter.com/cvbB6woSEW
The new UNH survey shows Matos leads Loughlin 56% to 41%, with 4% of survey respondents undecided. Yet enthusiasm for the incumbent appears muted. Roughly seven out of ten individuals backing Matos reported their vote was cast in favor of her party affiliation rather than personal preference for her as a candidate. By contrast, more than eight in ten Loughlin backers said their vote was driven by support for him individually.
Loughlin is one of few candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot who survey respondents viewed favorably, enjoying a positive 8 approval rating compared to Matos’s negative 13. However, brand recognition remains a hurdle, with nearly half of respondents holding no opinion of the challenger, contrasted with 9% for Matos. Matos’s campaign has also filed a finance complaint against Loughlin, alleging his campaign manager siphoned taxpayer-funded campaign money from TV ad placements.
NEW: An election-eve @UNHSurveyCenter poll finds RI's Democratic nominees all opening up bigger leadsFoulkes 55%Block 34%Guckian 8%Matos 56%Loughlin 41%Reed 63%McKay 32% https://t.co/RujKYro35U
“As always, the only poll that matters is happening tomorrow,” Mark Gray, Matos’ campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. Gray highlighted Matos’s legislative initiatives tackling affordability matters—such as grocery costs—through a 2026 legislative package, with certain provisions having already taken effect as law. “Voters know that affordability isn’t a campaign buzzword for Sabina—she has lived it, and she has put forward nation-leading work on it long before the rest of the country’s politicians pivoted to it.”
In the U.S. Senate race, Rhode Island’s senior senator Jack Reed maintains a decisive lead, backed by more than six in ten voters. GOP challenger Ray McKay claims 30% support, while independent candidate Michael Bahry holds 3%. Across all contests, affordability and inflation remain the No. 1 concern of voters, which mirrors the demographic split of Rhode Island’s 699,000 registered voters. With early voting concluding at 4 p.m. on the last day of early voting, the final resolution now rests entirely on Tuesday’s election.
