Tennessee voters will determine the state’s next governor and U.S. representatives on November 3, 2026, with polls indicating closely contested races for both executive and congressional seats. Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Democratic nominee Jerri Green lead the governor’s race, while Republican and Democratic candidates vie for control of two key congressional districts.
Recent polling by Spry Strategies shows Blackburn with 43.5% support among likely voters, compared to 32% for Green. Independent candidates Lauren Pinkston and David Hatley trail with 1.4% and 11.9%, respectively. The Tennessean noted that Hatley’s and Pinkston’s combined support could narrow the margin between Blackburn and Green. In the 5th Congressional District, Republican Charlie Hatcher holds a 46% lead over Democrat Chaz Molder, who has 41%, according to a September 2026 poll. The 9th District race features Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor at 48% versus Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson at 44%, per a Hart Research Associates survey.
Tennessee Governor’s Race: Blackburn Leads, but Competition Lingers
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn remains the frontrunner in Tennessee’s governor’s race, according to an Oct. 19 poll by Spry Strategies. Democratic nominee Jerri Green trails with 32% support, while independent candidates David Hatley and Lauren Pinkston account for 11.9% and 1.4%, respectively. The Tennessean highlighted that independent candidates’ combined support could influence the final outcome between Blackburn and Green. The poll, conducted by a Republican-aligned political consulting group, also noted that Blackburn’s lead was highlighted in the survey.
5th Congressional District: Hatcher Holds Narrow Edge
Republican Charlie Hatcher leads Democrat Chaz Molder in Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, with 46% to 41% of likely voters, according to a September 2026 poll commissioned by Molder’s campaign. The race, in a district represented by a Republican since 2022, remains within five percentage points, suggesting a competitive contest. The poll highlighted that Hatcher holds a narrow lead over Molder in the 5th Congressional District.
9th District: Taylor Edges Pearson in Key House Race
Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor holds a 48% to 44% lead over Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson in Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, per a September poll by Hart Research Associates. The race is seen as critical to Republican efforts to eliminate the state’s sole Democratic-held House seat, following May’s redistricting. The poll, conducted by a Democratic polling and research firm, noted that Pearson’s support was mentioned in the survey. Source
Peter Burditt covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact him at PBurditt@nashvill.gannett.com.
