Our internal polls show that we surpassed [the threshold] in the first round some time ago. I hope it will be enough to secure a first-round victory,
said Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as polls closed across Brazil on Sunday after he and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faced off in a tightly contested presidential election. Final surveys showed the two candidates running neck and neck, with a second-round runoff expected on October 25 as neither secured an outright majority.
Voting ended at 5 p.m.
Surveys Point to an October 25 Runoff
Final national surveys released on Saturday showed Lula leading in the first round by margins ranging from one to six points, though he fell short of the outright majority needed to avoid a runoff. To win the presidency immediately, a candidate must capture more than 50 percent of valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots. Because every Brazilian presidential election since 2002 has gone to a second round, a rematch scheduled for October 25 was widely anticipated.
Between September 30 and October 2, MDA polled 2,007 individuals, yielding a 2.2-point margin of error that put Lula ahead with 47.8 percent of valid votes compared to 42.1 percent for Flávio.
- Datafolha: Placed Lula at 45 percent to Bolsonaro’s 42 percent in the first round, with runoff figures tightening to 47 percent for Lula and 46 percent for Bolsonaro.
- MDA: Showed Lula at 47.8 percent to Bolsonaro’s 42.1 percent in the first round.
Other figures in the race included writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury of the Avante party, Renan Santos of the Missão party, former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, and former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, who each remained stuck in single digits, with Santos reaching as high as 4.6 percent in the AtlasIntel survey.
In the 2022 election, Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father, outperformed the polls, the surveys by almost 10 percent,
said Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, adding, So there could be a surprise on Sunday.
Early Returns From International Ballots
In China, Lula won 65.69 percent of the votes (recorded as 268 votes), while Bolsonaro gathered 24.02 percent (or 98 votes). Lula also led in countries such as South Korea (123 votes or 56.94% to Bolsonaro’s 72 votes at 33.33%), New Zealand (234 votes or 70.48% to Bolsonaro’s 64 votes at 19.28%), Australia (4,562 votes or 56.11% to Bolsonaro’s 2,579 votes at 31.72%), and Saudi Arabia.
These international returns represent early bulletins from specific polling locations and do not constitute the official national tally.
Controversies Shape the Final Campaign Stretch
The race unfolded against a backdrop of intense geopolitical friction and domestic scandal. Lula campaigned heavily on defending Brazilian sovereignty against foreign pressure.
Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned on a platform of hardline security measures and fiscal austerity, aligning himself with regional right-wing leaders. Because of ongoing health issues, his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro—who is serving a 27-year term for plotting a coup and cannot run for office—is serving house arrest instead of time in a cell, and he is banned from publishing on social media or issuing public comments.
The final debate on TV Bandeirantes featured both top candidates deciding not to go, leaving their podiums vacant with their names to be criticized by Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), who were present. The TV Globo debate that traditionally closes campaigns was canceled following a series of judicial decisions and Flávio's last-minute withdrawal.
Lula and Bolsonaro Vote as Campaigns Reach Final Rallies
Lula voted at a school in São Bernardo do Campo, urging citizens over 70 to vote and framing the choice as one between fortalecimento do regime democrático e a barbárie
(the strengthening of the democratic regime and barbarism). Lula will hold his final rally in the megacity of São Paulo, featuring slogans on T-shirts and banners reading “Lula president again” and “Brazil belongs to Brazilians”. Flávio Bolsonaro voted at a school in Vila Isabel in Rio de Janeiro shortly after the polls opened.
Our internal polls show that we surpassed [the threshold] in the first round some time ago. I hope it will be enough to secure a first-round victory.
Flávio Bolsonaro, Senator
Flávio Bolsonaro took part in a bikers’ rally about 400 km away in the state of São Paulo and ended the day with a final event in Rio de Janeiro, featuring huge US flags and giant inflatable balloons of Donald Trump, who does not back the senator but says he is following the Brazilian election very closely.
Voting proceeded through 5 p.m. Brasília time, utilizing electronic machines nationwide that typically produce a clear national picture within a few hours of polls closing, with the official totalization managed by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE).
