Sam Forstag Breaks a 32-Year Drought in Western Montana
In the “blue wave” that washed over the country this week, liberals in Montana secured both an historic win and a conspicuous loss. Montanans elected Democrat Sam Forstag to Congress, sending supporters dancing at the Florence building in Missoula in the wee hours Wednesday. It’s the first time in 32 years a Democrat was elected to represent the Treasure State in the U.S. House.
Yet that breakthrough stood in sharp contrast to a U.S. Senate race where a divided left fractured the vote and helped Republican Kurt Alme claim victory. While voters in states arguably redder than Montana will send Democrats to the U.S. Senate—such as Texas electing James Talarico and Kansas electing a Democrat for the first time since 1932—Montana Democrats engaged in a clash on the left that showed little sign of a resolution this week.
Kurt Alme Claims Senate Seat as Voters Split
The numbers in the Senate contest laid bare the division. Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead earned just 12% of the vote, while the independent, Seth Bodnar, earned 38%. Republican Kurt Alme claimed the seat with 48% of the vote. In the days following the election, supporters of Bodnar argued that Bankhead acted as a “spoiler” who “refused to withdraw.”
There’s a huge missed opportunity that’s going to be settling in on people today and over the coming weeks, and someone has to be the scapegoat. — Kal Munis
Montana Democratic Party executive director Emily Marburger described the “independent experiment” as a failure. In an email after the election, Marburger pointed out that states attempting to run independents like Nebraska and South Dakota largely missed the blue tsunami. On the other side, Nancy Keenan, a Bodnar supporter and former director of the Montana Democratic Party, argued that Bankhead’s refusal to step aside hurt progressive chances.
Kal Munis, a political scientist at Montana State University, suggested the blame stretches further back to the “old guard Democratic establishment.” Munis noted that party planners devised a plan to run an independent in red Montana but failed to execute. Bankhead, a newcomer who had been in Montana less than a decade, won the primary. Munis observed that expecting a primary winner to abandon her win doesn’t account for the ego of a politician.
Bill Forstag Wins House Race with Strong Ground Game
While the Senate race devolved into mutual recriminations, the western district house race followed a different playbook. Bill Lombardi, who helped launch former U.S. Sen. Jon Tester’s first U.S. Senate campaign and worked for former U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, noted that he hadn’t seen as much energy for a candidate in 30 years.
Munis emphasized that Forstag possessed sharp political instincts and someone in his campaign understands “the power of the ground game.” Despite efforts by Republican opponent Aaron Flint to place a socialist mantle on him, Forstag stayed focused on wages and affordability. That grounded approach resonated strongly with college students and voters across the district.
Both Kurt Alme for US Senate and Sam Forstag for Congress have officially declared victory in Montana. I am not ready to call it but it’s looking like both of them are correct.
Political Analysts Warn Local Party Faces Fundamental Choice
As the dust settles, political analysts warn that the local party faces a fundamental choice. Lee Banville, a political analyst with the University of Montana, remarked that the left “chose to fight themselves” rather than the Republican. With 42% of Montanans identifying as independents, strategists remain divided on whether to build a broader coalition that welcomes an independent voice or stick with the two-party system.
Until Montana Democrats stop fighting what looks like a “weird sort of civil war,” future statewide races will likely mirror this week’s deeply divided outcome.
